📌About the Event

The National Probability Challenge 2026 is a national-level quantitative reasoning competition presented by Techfest, IIT Bombay in association with Jane Street. It is designed to test participants’ skills in probability, mathematical reasoning, combinatorics, expected value and strategic decision-making. The challenge progresses from a preliminary probability assessment to an offline finale featuring advanced quantitative problems and trading-floor-style simulation challenges. Techfest has officially announced a ₹3.8 lakh prize pool and a 15 October 2026 registration deadline.

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ℹ️ Event Details

• Organiser: Techfest, IIT Bombay
• In association with: Jane Street
• Domain: Probability, Mathematics, Quantitative Finance and Analytical Reasoning
• Mode: Hybrid
• Stage 1: Primarily online through HackerEarth
• Offline preliminary tests may also be conducted at selected partner colleges.
• Stage 2/Finale: Offline at IIT Bombay, Mumbai
• Team size: Listed as 1–3 members; Stage 1 qualification is based on participant performance.
• Stage 1 duration: 60 minutes
• Number of questions: Approximately 15–20
• Major topics: Probability, conditional probability, Bayes’ theorem, combinatorics, random variables, distributions, expectation, variance, indicator variables and expected-value/game-theory problems

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📅 Important Dates

• Registration deadline: 15 October 2026, 11:59 PM IST
• Round 1 – Online Test 1: 24 October 2026
• Round 1 – Online Test 2: 31 October 2026
• Offline preliminary rounds: According to participating college schedules
• Round 1 results: 10 November 2026
• Offline Grand Finale: 16 December 2026
• Techfest IIT Bombay 2026: 16–18 December 2026

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🎯 Eligibility & Rules

• Eligibilty:
• Open to registered students across all years of study.
• Categories listed include undergraduate, postgraduate, engineering, management, arts, commerce, science, law and medical students.
• Finalists must carry a valid educational institution ID for the offline round at IIT Bombay.

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🏆 Benefits for the Participants

• Total prize pool: ₹3,80,000
• Prize money is announced for the top 3 winners.
• Participants qualifying for Round 2 receive certificates.
• Finalists also get the opportunity to compete at Techfest IIT Bombay, with challenges designed around quantitative finance and trading-style decision-making